This is a reprint of an article that I recently published. I would love to get your thoughts and opinions on what is causing the down market and what investors can do to work around these factors.
Factors Contributing to the Down Real Estate Market
Anyone who doesn’t realize that much of the United States is in a down real estate market right now has either been living in a cave or been in a coma. You could join with all the real estate investors, agents, mortgage brokers and other supporting characters who are involved in the real estate transaction in a collective moan of pain. But you would do better to understand what contributed to the current market downturn in order to find ways to make money in this market.
The buying opportunities in this market are huge and self-evident. We are in a buyers’ market. The problem for most investors is that they are afraid of getting stuck in a property, either not being able to sell or ending up upside down because of a drop in price or both.
There are several components that contribute to a down market and knowing what those components are can help you to find a way around them. Some common components of down markets are:
Too many houses on the market
Higher interest rates which limits the number of buyers
House prices over-inflated due to past hot market
Economic turmoil in an area
Media projecting continued down market/bubble burst
Let’s tackle them one by one.
Too many houses on the market.
Too many houses on the market can be caused by either having too many people jumping on the bandwagon at the end of a hot market or it could be caused by an actual slowdown in sales. In today’s market in Tampa, FL, for example, houses are selling at about the same rate that they were selling last year at this time. However, because Tampa had such a hot market, people were motivated by the outrageous prices that they saw other people getting for their houses and everyone decided that this was the time to sell. Unfortunately, most “civilians” missed the hot market and got in too late. They put top of the market prices on their homes and have watched the houses sit on the market for three, six, even up to nine months. Unfortunately, over the past nine months, prices have corrected in the Tampa Bay market (and many other areas of the country) and have declined by an average of 10%. Sellers have been slow to lower their prices to meet with this new reality. Buyers are waiting for the other shoe to drop.
A symptom of a glut of houses on the market is an increased length of time that a house takes to sell. Why? There are more houses to buy than there are buyers to buy them. Simple supply and demand. When the supply is large, demand drops. Prices drop after demand drops. When prices drop, demand usually goes up. We are not yet at the slack tide point where prices bottom out and before demand goes up. Right now, prices are still dropping. It will be many more months before demand goes up again.
The interesting thing about the length of time on market is how quickly investors have forgotten what a normal market looks like. Three years ago, 90 days on the market was the average for home sales in the Tampa area. We are back to that point again today. Check with your local Board of Realtors to see what the average length of time on market is today compared to three or four years ago. The down market you are experiencing may be more of a return to a normal market when you look at the numbers.
Unfortunately, what we are about to see is a second wave of houses coming on the market due to foreclosure. There are many factors that are causing the foreclosure rate to double, even quadruple in some areas: rising taxes and insurance, adjustable rates rising, gas prices, even credit card minimum payments. We will talk about rising taxes and insurance rates in more detail, but don’t discount the drastic effect of rising gasoline prices and increased credit card minimum payments have had on homeowners.
The U.S. is a paycheck to paycheck society. A year ago, most families were one or two paychecks away from financial disaster. Many made up the shortfall by using credit cards and made the minimum monthly payment. When credit card companies increased the minimum payment, in some cases doubling the minimum due, people were not able to make the payment. Missing a payment or being late on a payment resulted in the credit card issuers upping the interest rate on the cards. If someone is having difficulty making a minimum payment on a card with a 10% interest rate, they certainly are not going to be able to make the minimum payment on a card that has risen to 19% or higher.
The effect of gasoline price increases is transparent at the pump. A tank that used to cost $20 to fill up now costs $40 or more. If you are filling your tank just once a week, that extra $80 a month is causing a pinch. Since most U.S. families are two-car households, there is now an extra $160 going out the door per month. That is close to $2,000 a year. Less apparent is the increase in the cost of consumer goods across the boards. Think about how goods are shipped in the U.S. The cost of trucking goods, from groceries to building supplies to clothing, has gone up due to rising gasoline prices. And that cost is passed on to the consumer.
People who used to live paycheck to paycheck are now one to two paychecks behind. If you want proof, go to an Amscot or any paycheck advance place and see the working people lined up.
Higher Interest Rates Limit the Number of Buyers.
One of the contributing factors to our recent hot market was low interest rates. People who could never before afford a house were becoming homeowners, creating a whole new pool of buyers. Lower interest rates also meant that people could buy more house for their money because people buy based on the monthly payment. For example, a $225,000 mortgage at 8.5% interest would have a principle and interest payment of $1,717.82 The same mortgage at 5.5% interest comes in with a monthly payment of $1,271.67, a difference of almost $450. When people can buy more house for their money, the median house price tends to rise.
Conversely, when interest rates go up, monthly payments go up and many people have to buy a lower priced home or are priced out of the market. Higher interest rates lead to fewer buyers which leads to less demand. Which leads to a glut of houses on the market.
Houses Over-Priced Due to Past Hot Market
Buyers are waiting for prices to stabilize. The recent hot market inflated prices and in some cases over-inflated prices. Demand was high and prices went up with the demand. In some markets prices have held, but in many markets, prices are declining (or correcting depending on who you talk to) and buyers are reluctant and rightly so, to buy in a falling market. No one wants to pay $350,000 for a house only to have an identical house in the same neighborhood sell the next month for $320,000. It is one thing to buy a house for $125,000, hold it and watch the value shoot to $275,000 in two years then have it fall back to $240,000. Even with the decline, you had a huge upside growth and the loss is an opportunity cost; it is on paper. Buying a house and seeing the price drop and stay below what you paid for it is an actual loss. The people who are buying right now are people who have to buy a house (they have been transferred to an area, they sold their house and need another, etc.) or people who have found a deal far enough below market to ensure that the decline in prices won’t affect them. Everyone else is sitting. And watching. And waiting.
Economic Turmoil in an Area.
The recent run up of house prices across the country resulted in a corresponding run up of property taxes. Property taxes are based on the assessed value of the house. In order to keep taxes from going up, the local taxing authority would have to reduce the millage rate. Not a likely scenario. The millage rate (also known as the tax rate) is a figure applied to the value of your property to calculate your property tax liability. One “mill” represents one dollar of tax per thousand dollars of taxable property value.
For example, if the millage rate is .008557 for each dollar of value, multiply the millage rate by 1000 to get the price per $1,000 or simply move the rate three decimal places to the right. Millage rates are usually rounded off to two decimal places so if the millage rate is 8.56 and your house’s taxable value (not its actual value) is $100,000, your property taxes would be $856.
Now, if you originally had a taxable value of $100,000 on your house and due to rising market prices its taxable value went up to $200,000, your property taxes would double to $1,712. That is an extra $71 a month. Not a hardship to most people. But realize that many people are on a fixed income or are living paycheck to paycheck. That extra $71 this year may be an extra $80 next year and an extra $100 the next year. If people’s incomes aren’t rising to cover the additional costs (and cost of living increases have been averaging around 3% – many companies have not been giving raises at all), then a cash crunch develops.
In some locations, another contributing factor to economic turmoil is an increase in insurance rates. Insurers have taken huge hits in recent years and are passing their costs on to consumers. Because insurance is required by lenders, homeowners are not able to opt out from this expense. While most homeowners are not increasing their insurance coverage to correspond with the rise in property value, the rates themselves have increased. The same amount of coverage costs more.
In addition, many people rushed to get cash out refinances to pay off consumer debt, buy “toys” or send their kids to college. The larger mortgage required higher insurance coverage. Now they are facing higher mortgage, tax and insurance payments.
In some areas, the job market has stagnated or even fallen off. Large corporations have announced layoffs of employees (think US automakers Ford and GM, for example). Outsourcing is another major factor in what is now a transitional job market. While unemployment rates have been trending downward indicating a net increase of jobs in the United States, jobs are not being created equally throughout the fifty states or even equally within areas of a state. And, the jobs that are being created are not necessarily higher paying jobs. A GM line worker who was making $52,000 a year plus benefits is not going to easily find a position that will pay him that much, particularly if he doesn’t have a college degree and transferable skills. He will be lucky to find a position at half or two-thirds of his former salary.
A poor job market, which may either be lack of jobs available or a market with a low pay scale inhibits the amount of buyers as well as limits the median price of homes. If the average working family in an area makes a combined income of $45,000, traditionally the house they can afford will be in the range of $112,500 to (if they can get a really low interest rate mortgage) $150,000. Average house prices can’t rise too high or there will be no one that can qualify to buy them.
An area with weak economic viability gives way to increased crime, poorer quality schools, rundown neighborhoods and declining home values.
Median household income across the United States, when inflation is factored in, has dropped in 45 states. Of the four states that have had an increase in income, the highest was Rhode Island with an increase of 4.4% followed by Wyoming with a 4.1% increase in median income. Montana and North Dakota followed with increases of 1.6% and 1.2% respectively. Even though people are making the same amount of money or even a little more than they did a few years ago, their buying power has decreased.
Media Projecting Continued Down Market/Bubble Burst
Blaming the media for a downwardly spiraling market is very much a “shoot the messenger” scenario. But continuous speculation on when the housing price bubble was going to burst caused an expectation in people’s minds that became a reality. The bubble didn’t have to burst. Housing prices could have gone up and stabilized. But forecasting impending doom is a much better attention-getter than forecasting the status quo. And most media outlets are businesses that have to show a profit at the end of the year.
Even though we realize that the media is biased (and we support the specific media that validates our biases), we still give the media credit as a disinterested third party that is just reporting the facts. Just as history is written by the victors, the slant on the information that is reported serves the media outlets’ purposes. While most are not manipulating the news with a Machiavellian glee, headlines or news teases are somewhat sensationalized to bring in readers or viewers. How many times has a headline caught your attention and when you read the article you find that the headline had very little to do with the facts of the story? The problem is that many people don’t bother to read much more than the headline and first paragraph, or they hear the news story teaser but don’t watch the actual report. Hearing or seeing the same information repeatedly eventually turns what may have been merely a theory into fact in your brain. The repetition alone creates credibility in our minds.
Knowing what caused the current market in your area can help you to determine how to locate houses, negotiate with sellers (paying off credit card balances or trading them for a house in a good school district for example) and finding creative ways to sell your property when everyone else can’t even get people to view their properties. Stay tuned to find out how to buy and flip houses in a down market.
Anyone who doesn’t realize that much of the United States is in a down real estate market right now has either been living in a cave or been in a coma. You could join with all the real estate investors, agents, mortgage brokers and other supporting characters who are involved in the real estate transaction in a collective moan of pain. But you would do better to understand what contributed to the current market downturn in order to find ways to make money in this market.
The buying opportunities in this market are huge and self-evident. We are in a buyers’ market. The problem for most investors is that they are afraid of getting stuck in a property, either not being able to sell or ending up upside down because of a drop in price or both.
There are several components that contribute to a down market and knowing what those components are can help you to find a way around them. Some common components of down markets are:
Too many houses on the market
Higher interest rates which limits the number of buyers
House prices over-inflated due to past hot market
Economic turmoil in an area
Media projecting continued down market/bubble burst
Let’s tackle them one by one.
Too many houses on the market.
Too many houses on the market can be caused by either having too many people jumping on the bandwagon at the end of a hot market or it could be caused by an actual slowdown in sales. In today’s market in Tampa, FL, for example, houses are selling at about the same rate that they were selling last year at this time. However, because Tampa had such a hot market, people were motivated by the outrageous prices that they saw other people getting for their houses and everyone decided that this was the time to sell. Unfortunately, most “civilians” missed the hot market and got in too late. They put top of the market prices on their homes and have watched the houses sit on the market for three, six, even up to nine months. Unfortunately, over the past nine months, prices have corrected in the Tampa Bay market (and many other areas of the country) and have declined by an average of 10%. Sellers have been slow to lower their prices to meet with this new reality. Buyers are waiting for the other shoe to drop.
A symptom of a glut of houses on the market is an increased length of time that a house takes to sell. Why? There are more houses to buy than there are buyers to buy them. Simple supply and demand. When the supply is large, demand drops. Prices drop after demand drops. When prices drop, demand usually goes up. We are not yet at the slack tide point where prices bottom out and before demand goes up. Right now, prices are still dropping. It will be many more months before demand goes up again.
The interesting thing about the length of time on market is how quickly investors have forgotten what a normal market looks like. Three years ago, 90 days on the market was the average for home sales in the Tampa area. We are back to that point again today. Check with your local Board of Realtors to see what the average length of time on market is today compared to three or four years ago. The down market you are experiencing may be more of a return to a normal market when you look at the numbers.
Unfortunately, what we are about to see is a second wave of houses coming on the market due to foreclosure. There are many factors that are causing the foreclosure rate to double, even quadruple in some areas: rising taxes and insurance, adjustable rates rising, gas prices, even credit card minimum payments. We will talk about rising taxes and insurance rates in more detail, but don’t discount the drastic effect of rising gasoline prices and increased credit card minimum payments have had on homeowners.
The U.S. is a paycheck to paycheck society. A year ago, most families were one or two paychecks away from financial disaster. Many made up the shortfall by using credit cards and made the minimum monthly payment. When credit card companies increased the minimum payment, in some cases doubling the minimum due, people were not able to make the payment. Missing a payment or being late on a payment resulted in the credit card issuers upping the interest rate on the cards. If someone is having difficulty making a minimum payment on a card with a 10% interest rate, they certainly are not going to be able to make the minimum payment on a card that has risen to 19% or higher.
The effect of gasoline price increases is transparent at the pump. A tank that used to cost $20 to fill up now costs $40 or more. If you are filling your tank just once a week, that extra $80 a month is causing a pinch. Since most U.S. families are two-car households, there is now an extra $160 going out the door per month. That is close to $2,000 a year. Less apparent is the increase in the cost of consumer goods across the boards. Think about how goods are shipped in the U.S. The cost of trucking goods, from groceries to building supplies to clothing, has gone up due to rising gasoline prices. And that cost is passed on to the consumer.
People who used to live paycheck to paycheck are now one to two paychecks behind. If you want proof, go to an Amscot or any paycheck advance place and see the working people lined up.
Higher Interest Rates Limit the Number of Buyers.
One of the contributing factors to our recent hot market was low interest rates. People who could never before afford a house were becoming homeowners, creating a whole new pool of buyers. Lower interest rates also meant that people could buy more house for their money because people buy based on the monthly payment. For example, a $225,000 mortgage at 8.5% interest would have a principle and interest payment of $1,717.82 The same mortgage at 5.5% interest comes in with a monthly payment of $1,271.67, a difference of almost $450. When people can buy more house for their money, the median house price tends to rise.
Conversely, when interest rates go up, monthly payments go up and many people have to buy a lower priced home or are priced out of the market. Higher interest rates lead to fewer buyers which leads to less demand. Which leads to a glut of houses on the market.
Houses Over-Priced Due to Past Hot Market
Buyers are waiting for prices to stabilize. The recent hot market inflated prices and in some cases over-inflated prices. Demand was high and prices went up with the demand. In some markets prices have held, but in many markets, prices are declining (or correcting depending on who you talk to) and buyers are reluctant and rightly so, to buy in a falling market. No one wants to pay $350,000 for a house only to have an identical house in the same neighborhood sell the next month for $320,000. It is one thing to buy a house for $125,000, hold it and watch the value shoot to $275,000 in two years then have it fall back to $240,000. Even with the decline, you had a huge upside growth and the loss is an opportunity cost; it is on paper. Buying a house and seeing the price drop and stay below what you paid for it is an actual loss. The people who are buying right now are people who have to buy a house (they have been transferred to an area, they sold their house and need another, etc.) or people who have found a deal far enough below market to ensure that the decline in prices won’t affect them. Everyone else is sitting. And watching. And waiting.
Economic Turmoil in an Area.
The recent run up of house prices across the country resulted in a corresponding run up of property taxes. Property taxes are based on the assessed value of the house. In order to keep taxes from going up, the local taxing authority would have to reduce the millage rate. Not a likely scenario. The millage rate (also known as the tax rate) is a figure applied to the value of your property to calculate your property tax liability. One “mill” represents one dollar of tax per thousand dollars of taxable property value.
For example, if the millage rate is .008557 for each dollar of value, multiply the millage rate by 1000 to get the price per $1,000 or simply move the rate three decimal places to the right. Millage rates are usually rounded off to two decimal places so if the millage rate is 8.56 and your house’s taxable value (not its actual value) is $100,000, your property taxes would be $856.
Now, if you originally had a taxable value of $100,000 on your house and due to rising market prices its taxable value went up to $200,000, your property taxes would double to $1,712. That is an extra $71 a month. Not a hardship to most people. But realize that many people are on a fixed income or are living paycheck to paycheck. That extra $71 this year may be an extra $80 next year and an extra $100 the next year. If people’s incomes aren’t rising to cover the additional costs (and cost of living increases have been averaging around 3% – many companies have not been giving raises at all), then a cash crunch develops.
In some locations, another contributing factor to economic turmoil is an increase in insurance rates. Insurers have taken huge hits in recent years and are passing their costs on to consumers. Because insurance is required by lenders, homeowners are not able to opt out from this expense. While most homeowners are not increasing their insurance coverage to correspond with the rise in property value, the rates themselves have increased. The same amount of coverage costs more.
In addition, many people rushed to get cash out refinances to pay off consumer debt, buy “toys” or send their kids to college. The larger mortgage required higher insurance coverage. Now they are facing higher mortgage, tax and insurance payments.
In some areas, the job market has stagnated or even fallen off. Large corporations have announced layoffs of employees (think US automakers Ford and GM, for example). Outsourcing is another major factor in what is now a transitional job market. While unemployment rates have been trending downward indicating a net increase of jobs in the United States, jobs are not being created equally throughout the fifty states or even equally within areas of a state. And, the jobs that are being created are not necessarily higher paying jobs. A GM line worker who was making $52,000 a year plus benefits is not going to easily find a position that will pay him that much, particularly if he doesn’t have a college degree and transferable skills. He will be lucky to find a position at half or two-thirds of his former salary.
A poor job market, which may either be lack of jobs available or a market with a low pay scale inhibits the amount of buyers as well as limits the median price of homes. If the average working family in an area makes a combined income of $45,000, traditionally the house they can afford will be in the range of $112,500 to (if they can get a really low interest rate mortgage) $150,000. Average house prices can’t rise too high or there will be no one that can qualify to buy them.
An area with weak economic viability gives way to increased crime, poorer quality schools, rundown neighborhoods and declining home values.
Median household income across the United States, when inflation is factored in, has dropped in 45 states. Of the four states that have had an increase in income, the highest was Rhode Island with an increase of 4.4% followed by Wyoming with a 4.1% increase in median income. Montana and North Dakota followed with increases of 1.6% and 1.2% respectively. Even though people are making the same amount of money or even a little more than they did a few years ago, their buying power has decreased.
Media Projecting Continued Down Market/Bubble Burst
Blaming the media for a downwardly spiraling market is very much a “shoot the messenger” scenario. But continuous speculation on when the housing price bubble was going to burst caused an expectation in people’s minds that became a reality. The bubble didn’t have to burst. Housing prices could have gone up and stabilized. But forecasting impending doom is a much better attention-getter than forecasting the status quo. And most media outlets are businesses that have to show a profit at the end of the year.
Even though we realize that the media is biased (and we support the specific media that validates our biases), we still give the media credit as a disinterested third party that is just reporting the facts. Just as history is written by the victors, the slant on the information that is reported serves the media outlets’ purposes. While most are not manipulating the news with a Machiavellian glee, headlines or news teases are somewhat sensationalized to bring in readers or viewers. How many times has a headline caught your attention and when you read the article you find that the headline had very little to do with the facts of the story? The problem is that many people don’t bother to read much more than the headline and first paragraph, or they hear the news story teaser but don’t watch the actual report. Hearing or seeing the same information repeatedly eventually turns what may have been merely a theory into fact in your brain. The repetition alone creates credibility in our minds.
Knowing what caused the current market in your area can help you to determine how to locate houses, negotiate with sellers (paying off credit card balances or trading them for a house in a good school district for example) and finding creative ways to sell your property when everyone else can’t even get people to view their properties. Stay tuned to find out how to buy and flip houses in a down market.
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